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Aluminum Capacity Replacement May Affect The Development Of The Carbon Industry
Nov 05, 2018

In January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the matters related to the implementation of capacity replacement by electrolytic aluminum enterprises through mergers and acquisitions, etc.", and the "Notice" requires that the electrolytic aluminum capacity index to be closed and listed in the phase-out announcement from 2011 to 2017 must be 2018. The capacity replacement will be completed before December 31 of the year, and the overdue period will not be used for replacement.


        Now, all the major aluminum factories are vying for the few remaining quotas, and they are rushing to “be safe” before the policy changes. For example, Chinalco purchased a total of 224,000 tons of production capacity from Chongqing Dongsheng Aluminum, Qianjiang Zhenghao Aluminum and Sanmenxia Tianyuan Aluminum.


The quota of the index was fiercely contested, and the enterprises with capacity replacement were smacking their mouths. They did not expect to have the ability to glow before the end. Of course, what makes them most happy is the rising transaction price. Shandong Property Rights Trading Center, Yankuang Keyao Aluminum Co., Ltd. 140,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity was repeatedly advertised by major domestic aluminum plants, and finally won by Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. with 1.402 billion yuan, higher than the listed price 1.192 billion yuan, equivalent to more than 10,000 yuan per ton of production target.


According to statistics, from 2011 to 2017, a total of 4.679 million tons of electrolytic aluminum was announced, and the capacity of the completed/announced replacement was 3.537 million tons. Among them, 680,000 tons have been put into use in the target purchaser enterprises, and the remaining 3.074 million tons of production capacity is eligible for production. The remaining replaceable capacity in the phase-out capacity was 925,200 tons.


The reason why the aluminum plant is willing to perform on the replacement capacity is due to the state's strict control over the new electrolytic aluminum project. The state began to implement the fifth round of macro-control on electrolytic aluminum, and the National Development and Reform Commission no longer approved the construction of new electrolytic aluminum projects.


Even if the capacity after replacement is used for new capacity construction, the release of new capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be less and less after the re-release of the capacity after this replacement. Even if the policy is gradually opened up, it will change the form of excessive growth and disorderly growth of electrolytic aluminum. The era of “barbaric” growth in electrolytic aluminum production has come to an end.


In contrast, the carbon industry, especially the aluminum anodes that are closely related to the electrolytic aluminum market, has a total capacity of about 26.215 million tons in 2018, an increase of 8.02% over the same period in 2017. Although there is a “2+26” environmental protection policy, there is still no Block the expansion of momentum.


In the chain of production and digestion, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity will not have much impact on the carbon industry in the short term, but in the long run, if the carbon industry continues to maintain momentum, the China electrolytic aluminum market with moderate capacity release will not be satisfied. The market demand of carbon enterprises, if the company does not seek other channels, it is dangerous!


Another point worthy of attention is that the large-scale electrolytic aluminum plant with strong strength has a strong interest in the construction of pre-baked anodes. The commercial anode output from January to June 2018 is reduced compared with 17 years, and the increase in supporting anode capacity is matched. , 224,400 tons. In the case of increased electricity costs, large aluminum plants are likely to consider supporting the construction of anodes in the long run.